By: Habtamu Girma Demiessie
Introduction
The 6th edition of the national election in Ethiopia is scheduled in May 2020. So far, whether to uphold or postpone the time of election is subjected to debate. In this regard, the political pundit active in the country are divided in to two camps.
The first camp, which is spearheaded by the seasoned academic and politician, Birhanu Nega (Prof.), insists the election time should be rescheduled. The second camp stands for a timely election to hold. This camp is filled by political bigwigs, the likes of Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF), The Amhara National Movement (NAMA), Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and the Oromo Federalist Congress Party (OFC).
The incumbent Prosperity Party has been silent on its stance in this regard. But, its silence has broken just days before, when it held its first executive committee meeting (since EPRDF held a merger with its Satellite Parties to form Prosperity Party late October)
At least at this moment, just looking the relative influence of the two camps, the camp in support of a timely election is overwhelming. This is perhaps after the Prosperity Party (PP) executive committee expressed its stand on the election to hold in time.
But, election is not an end, it is only a means to ascertain national consensus via erecting a legitimate government. In some exceptions, where the unity of a country is at its fragile, elections would not be a cure to result a stable politics and government, but otherwise.
Which Way is better for Ethiopia: Upholding or Postponing Election Schedule?
Ethiopia is eying for its national election in this May 2020. With the country at crossroad, the essence of the scheduled election would amount not for the sake of promoting democracy, but beyond to maintain rule of law and national integrity. The cost of upholding or postponing the national election amounts with its inevitable consequences in those regards.
A fair fetch into the Ethiopian political environment tells the country is suffering from two: legitimacy of government and leadership crisis. Therefore, whether to hold election in time or not should be evaluated in healing those fractures.
At this point in time, Abiy Ahmed and his circle are giving a temporary but substantive solution for both. But, the move is only feasible up until the upcoming election. Otherwise, the inevitable would show-up.
Well, in my opinion, the inevitable outcomes of not holding election in time are two: delegitimize the government; and further frustrate the leadership crisis in Ethiopia
Postponing Election upset Legitimacy of Abiy Ahmeds Government
The immediate effect of postponing election would subject the legitimacy of Abiy Ahmeds rule. That in turn would be consequential exacerbating the fragile national security of the country. In this regard, political forces/groups from within and outside of the country can use the matter to play their subversive games. It takes to understand that these groups achieve their vested interest only at the peril of a destabilized Ethiopian state.
Postponing Election would Damage the Charisma of Abiy Ahmeds Leadership
Since Abiy came to power, his leadership has been fighting against the rampant leadership crisis sweeping across all departments of the Ethiopian society, politics, bureaucracy, security, etc. one aspect of the leadership crisis is inability/incapability of the sizable portion of elite group to seeing the bigger picture and decides accordingly that would add to the welfare of Ethiopian populace. So far, Abiy is leading the country by virtue of its charismatic leadership, helping him amass wide support base from within Ethiopia and the global community. Indeed, Abiy has achieved that dealing with imminent attacks not just against his government, but also to personal safety of him and his circle. Abiy has been fixing the leadership crisis in Ethiopia in his patience and wisdom. In his oratorical speeches, he tirelessly connoted leaders to be thoughtful and pass a grown up decisions in their ventures. In his actions, Abiy has shown the personal pride is below the service of the people he led. In his wise leadership quality, Abiys leadership has been showing remarkable achievements. In his charisma, Abiy reinstated Ethiopias honor to its height in the world history. In my opinion, postponing the election would damage the flourishing leadership charisma of Abiy Ahmeds government. Otherwise, Ethiopia would soon count the cost.
For one, it hampers the reform process the country is forging under the rule of Abiy Ahmed Ali (PhD). Moreover, postponing election would be a good opportunity for infiltrators that work to weaken the rising support base of Abiy, both within and outside Ethiopia.
May God Save Ethiopia and its People!!!
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Habtamu Girma Demiessie (ሀብታሙ ግርማ ደምሴ) 